Introduction
When doing the #30in30 pods with James and Suj, they asked if and what I could use from trading on Football Index (Fi) in FPL, I hadn’t given it much thought prior to that week of the Pod and in fact was looking at it in the reverse. Since the FPL prices and team selections I realised I’m using certain factors and whilst it is still a work in progress I can see there are things of use to me. This is not really about Fi in depth and very much about FPL, I hope it can be of use to others.
Being that Fi involves money, you are wise to look at certain things in more detail and do your research, the main crossovers and things I can use are relevant to FPL, which I will touch on in more detail, these include value, risk v reward, when to buy, diversification, and knowing your reasons for buying.
Value
Probably one of the more obvious synergies I think we all look at is value in some capacity and to a degree it is subjective and a matter of personal opinion, but there is data available to help with this, ultimately in Fi prices rise for a variety of underlying reasons including speculation but do so based on supply and demand, at present all prices in FPL are static until the game starts. I have looked at this a lot more than previous years in my FPL GW 1 set up
In FPL we have last years prices and points as a guide, previous FPL history, I lazily got a data sheet off one of the other correspondents, I won’t name them so they do not get inundated, but they can tag on to this if they wish, so big thanks to them. I was looking at Points Per Game (PPG), but wanted to look at Points Per Million (PPM) as well so I added that data in, the other data point used was players playing 3000 minutes to be realistic to pick up on any players who could score more or be better value than a similar player or teammate. An example of this Is TAA Vs Robertson Vs VVD, for me TAA is the better value when looking at the potential ceiling to score more points if his minutes are closer to 3000 minutes.
Risk V Reward
There are differences in what these are in Fi and FPL, in Fi the prices paid at the time is the factor as well as the potential to go higher and some of the drivers can be different so it’s more about the thought process than mechanics, and see some of these on some players and consider this more in terms of risk because of Fi, the more information you use the better but it comes down to your prediction, which will be a gamble and of course is always a danger of how I/we use the data so my conclusion may be different depending on your risk profile, I’m cautions but I take risks as well but not blindly, hopefully using my experience in Fi I can ensure these are more calculated or better foundations to them than previously determined.
So using the same players, starting with TAA the risks other than those that apply to all players like injuries is he doesn’t get more minutes, the team regress, as a player he regresses in this case bar injury I’ve taken the view is more likely his minutes increase , Dan @FPL_ LocoLord the Liverpool correspondent, has written a great piece on Liverpool as well. TAA is on set pieces and corners as well as a goal threat so there is also room for improvement so the rewards out weigh the risks, part of this has been built in with his FPL price already. VVD and Robertson are similar in that their risk is higher of reduced minutes however slight that may be as they played so much last year, but even if they match the return or get close to 200 points that is still value for me, compared to similar priced players across the various positions.
When to buy / timing of when brought
This links into value and the risk v reward, as when you buy can alter both due to the price you’ve got the player into your FPL team, it’s more relevant in Fi but still comes into play, but does link in still, I don’t put as much sway on prices as I once did on FPL, I used to play the prices far more but the benefits are less these days. That said let’s take an arbitrary case, someone like Salah who is valued at 12.5, say he starts really well and he’s gone to 13.0, if there is a large rise you could be priced out of having him in FPL depending on your money ITB, conversely if you buy a player and he performs badly for a period or gets injured/banned his price will drop if enough people sell. Also relevant to FPL is the fixtures as well as form of any player, the budget creates some constraints in FPL that may not exist so can make this less relevant than others I mention.
Diversification
In Fi terms this is down to your own style, risk profile and time you can dedicate and your own goals, I have quite a diverse portfolio in Fi with a range of player values, teams, positions, ages established and less well known players. In FPL terms this one was not so obvious at first, and I’m not entirely sure how this will develop, but I think this will take shape to leave a spot for 1 or 2 risker players or punts from time to time, be that a team or the player themselves, I am looking at my team so I have some premiums which can be good for captaincy choices, big at the back options, mid-priced assets and the cheap bench fodders, the budget limitation makes some of this naturally happen. We can liken it to how we set up teams up and the balance in them, are we too reliant on small number of players or teams? Some diversification can mitigate against under performance in any given GW
Reason for Buying
In Fi this is about profit essentially in FPL its points of course, in fi I heard quite early that you should have and know your reasons for buying, this will make you less prone to short term events or lulls where not much is happening and you get bored so to make this relevant to FPL, this will I hope assist me in one of my Achilles heels of transfers and points hits . That does not mean I won’t take any but if I can reduce the needless ones, hopefully less tinkering between game weeks. It’s important to asses these regularly and see if they still hold, if something has changed like the team or players poor form, injuries in the team to other players as well as I can make a judgement on what to do or leave it alone.
Summary
It comes down to a combination of the above factors as well as the certain FPL centric ones people will look at like % ownership for example, these have all helped me make my team more of my own in FPL than previously and more confident in doing so in hindsight I know last year and gradually with so much great content but also lots of opinions I’ve been influenced. It could be GW1 new season euphoria but I hope I will enjoy the playing as well as potentially the results over the season. I realise some FPL managers may do a lot of this already, for me it’s a case of more focus and confidence in my choices this time around.
There are some specific resources I use for Fi, but one that is useful for both is the app Sofascore they have a lots of data that can be looked at including heat maps, this can be looked at player level, team or league level, and is useful for some of the new players as well, the data included % of successful passes, shots and key passes.